Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 12.194730 14.954850 18.032895 21.696772 25.915089 30.595509 36.156387
2025-11-30 8.465008 12.052394 16.503625 22.329023 29.640952 38.401859 49.569765
2025-12-07 6.040910 9.766390 14.814066 21.929417 31.456709 43.520065 59.667173
2025-12-14 4.655424 8.419706 13.919831 22.161768 33.778657 49.126985 70.438156
2025-12-21 3.367184 6.855302 12.362733 21.129926 34.109914 51.953846 77.574254
2025-12-28 2.756927 6.205323 12.009783 21.706193 36.619956 57.749272 88.853721
2026-01-04 2.229810 5.556333 11.521445 21.958063 38.594373 62.826339 99.314628
2026-01-11 1.841097 5.061164 11.190017 22.376944 40.789145 68.270129 110.472566
2026-01-18 1.556367 4.698653 11.020892 23.012757 43.319633 74.283423 122.651462
2026-01-25 1.214150 4.103729 10.309284 22.608300 44.110380 77.679854 131.103004
2026-02-01 1.001126 3.748364 9.997491 22.858731 45.955753 82.728826 142.151305
2026-02-08 0.781082 3.294709 9.397186 22.489810 46.695858 86.049615 150.678137
2026-02-15 0.569603 2.789950 8.622867 21.763803 46.885557 88.708650 158.648402
2026-02-22 0.474109 2.608311 8.557193 22.446110 49.641410 95.681808 173.656309
2026-03-01 0.350657 2.258566 8.005791 22.047817 50.379128 99.346113 183.574190
2026-03-08 0.276803 2.052549 7.770444 22.281324 52.286572 105.023219 196.872031
2026-03-15 0.184720 1.688626 7.011721 21.245143 51.668214 106.345744 203.151910
2026-03-22 0.150700 1.582717 6.964228 21.823846 54.227476 113.245225 218.756302
2026-03-29 0.117090 1.446527 6.790489 22.076776 56.141160 119.076290 232.762447
2026-04-05 0.092738 1.342438 6.692305 22.497413 58.412439 125.618202 248.139567
2026-04-12 0.075604 1.270186 6.682821 23.135879 61.165558 133.117819 265.333731
2026-04-19 0.051751 1.102141 6.288030 22.729736 61.686894 136.575741 275.755667
2026-04-26 0.038917 1.011408 6.150251 22.981212 63.619444 142.681413 290.868051